Prediction for Upcoming Debate and Election

Prediction | 🔮 Predictions for the Upcoming Presidential Debate and Election 🗳

June 24, 2024 Chanei P

This year has been exceptionally tumultuous, with a significant portion of the populace dissatisfied with the presidential candidates on offer. This widespread discontent has heightened anxiety across the board, irrespective of political affiliation. In light of this, I wanted to share some insights and predictions I've gathered about the candidates and the upcoming debate, along with some additional information that might be of interest.

Please note, I am not rooting for either side in this election, as I believe both candidates leave much to be desired. I am actually considering not voting because I believe voting Third Party makes no sense in our binary system. Unlike other modern western countries, our system isn't set up to support more than two major candidates. One day, we may have a system that allows for more diverse representation, which is essential for a true democracy.

I digress. I will not vote for Biden or Trump, as voting for a Third Party candidate would ultimately help one of them win. A Third Party candidate will not become President in this election. I am not promoting this viewpoint but sharing my personal stance as I am tired of choosing the lesser evil. This is my choice and not a suggestion for others. I want to be transparent about my perspective so you understand the spirit in which I approach this conversation.

Trump

With Trump being a transactional guy his whole life and it worked out well for him but it will not work for him in this election. He believes that those big money donors are somehow going to pull him out of this mess. Instead they will begin to turn their backs on him when they realize they will get nothing from him. He has a lot of solid Republican support, especially when it comes to his base. That will be pretty much the only support he will have come November.

Debate Performance

Media Perspective: Corporate media is likely to portray Trump as having lost the debate. (Trump lied consistently during the debate and didn't give straight answers when asked directly several times. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/philadelphia-inquirer-debate-response_n_668264d7e4b08dc39c835a22)
Public Perception: Contrary to media reports, I sense that Trump will resonate well with a significant portion of the general public. (Predicted on 6.19.24)(Everyone agreed he won the debate. He might have lied consistently but he came off alert. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/poll-debate-biden-trump.html)

Republican Voter Turnout

Prediction: I foresee a lack of strong voter turnout for Trump in the upcoming election. Since last year, I've consistently picked up on an undercurrent of betrayal within his ranks. While there appears to be current unity, this will change come July. Trump's present support base will diminish, and he will not enjoy the same level of backing that propelled him thus far. (Predicted on 6.16.24)

Democrat Voter Turnout

Prediction: I am not picking up that more Democrats are fleeing and flooding to vote for Trump. I don't sense a substantial amount that will vote for Trump to help him win the election. (Predicted on 6.16.24)

Independent Voter Turnout

Prediction: The turnout from Independent voters is down from the 2020 election. It feels like the turnout from this group is depressed. Independents that would vote for Trump are voting Third Party or staying home. (Predicted on 6.16.24)

Impact on Down-Ticket Republicans

Prediction: Trump's presence on the ticket will be more detrimental than beneficial to other Republicans running for office. Although he might assist some, it won't be sufficient to regain control of the House, the Senate, or secure the White House. (Predicted on 6.21.24)

Internal Party Dynamics

Prediction: Those Republicans who initially turned their backs on Trump and have recently shown support will regret their decision. They will find themselves unable to withdraw their support, leading to significant internal strife. It feels as if the very same people will assist in ensuring he does not win the Presidency in 2025. (Prediction 11.13.23)

Impact of Trump's Convictions

Prediction: Currently, there is no significant impact despite what the news or polls suggest. However, his convictions will begin to cause real damage in October. (Predicted 6.21.24)

Biden

Biden has come across as cool and calm, even though he has been very anxious about his reelection. He believes he can repeat his 2020 victory without changing any of his policies. He is somewhat right, as he will get enough support to get him over the finish line.

Debate Performance

Media Perspective: The media will likely laud Biden's debate performance, presenting it as a significant victory. (Even though Biden was visibly not prepared to debate and everyone agrees, the media has claimed Biden had a cold and is still the best choice. https://nypost.com/2024/07/01/business/msnbc-morning-joe-co-host-defends-biden-after-debate-disaster/)
Public Perception: However, the general public will not share this sentiment and will feel that Biden did not win the debate. (Predicted 6.19.24) (During the debate his age showed and many wonder is he up for the job, he seemed to freeze and forget his train of thought. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7285ld07npo)

Democrat Voter Turnout

Prediction: The Democrat turnout will be higher than the turnout Trump gets from Republicans, but Biden is missing key demographics. The number of Democrats coming out to vote is not as high as in 2020. (Predicted 6.19.24)

Republican Voter Turnout

Prediction: A lot of the support Biden is missing from Democrats is being replaced by many Republicans coming out to vote for him. (Predicted 6.19.24)

Independent Voter Turnout

Prediction: More Independents will come out to vote for Biden. While the turnout is still depressed, enough will support Biden. (Predicted 6.19.24)

Impact of Hunter Biden's Conviction

Prediction: Although Biden has been quite anxious about his campaign, a shift in July will see him gaining confidence in his chances for reelection. The conviction of Hunter Biden is unlikely to have a significant impact on his campaign. (Predicted 6.19.24)

Impact of the Genocide in Gaza

Prediction: I have to talk about what is obvious, a lot of Biden's support has diminished amongst the demographic he would normally need to win the electorate. I am not getting that he changes policies or how he continues to support the Nethanyhu government. (Predicted 2.5.24)

Election

RFK Jr.'s Influence

Prediction: The candidacy of RFK Jr. will impact Trump, drawing votes away from his candidacy. RFK Jr. will help Biden win as Trump's constituency is more likely to pick RFK Jr., but not enough to win. (Predicted on 5.13.24)

The Black, Brown, and Young Vote

Prediction: This was a tactic to psyche out the Democrats into believing these voter blocks are coming out for Trump. In reality, this block is not significantly supporting either candidate. Biden believes they will automatically be in his camp once we get to the election. He is so wrong on this one. (Prediction 6.19.24)

Election Outcome

Prediction: As it stands, I foresee a narrow victory for Biden. This win will be far from the decisive triumph he might have hoped for, underscoring the importance of every single vote in this election. Biden will not win with his usual base of support, indicating a significant shift in voter dynamics. When I saw this prediction I did not understand what was going on that would make this race so close and shift the energy towards him that his own base is angry with him. (Predicted 10.4.22)

In Conclusion

As we approach the debate on June 27th, the bar is extremely low for both candidates. Biden won't come off as out of touch, and Trump won't say something outlandish that only he and his supporters understand. These predictions aim to provide a glimpse into the potential outcomes and underlying currents shaping this election cycle. The political landscape is more uncertain than ever, and while these insights offer a perspective, the fluid nature of politics means anything can change. Stay tuned, stay informed, and most importantly, make your voice heard.

Leave a comment below. We love to know what you think or if you have anything to add to the discussion.

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